Case study: Climate migration within America — Where are people relocating after the Los Angeles fires? 🌬️🏘️
Wildfires, hurricanes... USA's housing market is adapting to the new realities of climate change, let's dive into data + Interview of the CEO of a company providing extreme-weather-proof homes.
I’m Djoann Fal. I’m fascinated by our planet, our changing weather, data, and peaceful, green technological utopias. What began as a career as a technology entrepreneur has become a mission to figure out where we are going, and what solutions are out there, as we leave this long, stable climate period and enter the hockey stick, climate change era.
Climate migration is reshaping the residential landscape of the United States. As floods, fires, and other environmental threats intensify, the search for safer and more prosperous places to live will become an ever more pressing challenge. Climate migration is not a simple cause-and-effect process but results from a dynamic interplay of environmental and economic factors.
The recent Los Angeles Pallisade fires brought light to this topic, but is it a single event or the signal of a larger macro trend that could also resonate around the world?
Are relocation decisions solely driven by the desire to escape climate hazards or do economic factors play an equally significant role? How do climate-related migration patterns differ across various economic groups, and what does this mean for the future of housing? Let’s dive in together.
📊 Some climate migration data for a more resilient investing…
These critical questions drive our partner for this newsletter, AlphaGeo, mission to leverage our geospatial data and research capabilities to uncover emergent patterns and guide resilient investing.
By examining historical trends, AlphaGeo provides insights into how past flood events have shaped current population distributions and settlement patterns. In recent decades, floods have been a key driver of population shifts, with people moving away from high-risk areas to safer zones. The Map #1 below illustrates the historic impact of floods on population growth.
Propensity score matching was employed to mitigate the effects of potential endogeneity — factors that may influence the relationship between flood risk and population change — by simulating conditions comparable to a control-treatment framework. This approach allowed for a more unbiased and precise analysis of the historical effects of flooding on population growth.
47% of flood-prone areas show no population growth…
On a national scale, population growth is clearly visible in non-flooded areas, highlighting the constraining effects of flooding. In fact, “climate abandonment” is becoming more pronounced within some of the most populous regions of the counties or states. Approximately 47% of flood-prone areas show no population growth.
The relationship between flood exposure and population shifts is complex, shaped by climate risks, economic parameters, and community resilience. Decisions to relocate—and the opportunity to do so—are influenced by a household’s financial situation and the policies, conditions, and affordability of the destination. People with varying income levels assess environmental risks and economic benefits differently, leading to significant variations in migration patterns.
Interestingly, we have also observed an influx into high-climate-risk areas, often driven by economic growth opportunities. To better understand these trends, we have developed a targeted economic strategy to analyze migration patterns across high-risk and low-risk areas in various states, focusing on the influence of income and economic opportunities.
📊 So, where are people buying their next houses?
Using economic clustering and propensity score matching, we analyze how climate migration unfolds across multiple economic classes and various states. The analysis was conducted at a granular H3_08 (hexagonal geospatial indexing system) resolution to capture spatial variability typically observable only at localized levels. This approach highlights micro-decision-making processes where individuals may weigh flood risks against economic, social, and logistical factors — patterns that may not be visible at larger scales. The findings are then averaged at the state level to provide a broader narrative while preserving local insights.
Wealthy people are more willing to relocate to economically prosperous regions despite the associated flood risks…
Three economic strata — lower, middle, and upper — were created based on key features such as median income, median home valuation, and employment rate. The results reveal notable differences across states. For example, in states such as Florida and in the Midwest, lower economic strata show slower population growth in flood-prone areas compared to non-flooded regions, indicating that flood risks have a constraining effect on migration for economically vulnerable groups. By contrast, in the upper economic strata, population growth tends to be higher in flood-prone areas. This indicates that sufficiently wealthy people are more willing to relocate to economically prosperous regions despite the associated flood risks. Risky areas within well-off economic strata may experience growth due to significant pull factors such as better job opportunities, higher wages, better infrastructure, or resilience-building investments that mitigate the perceived impact of environmental hazards.
These findings highlight a dual narrative: while lower-income groups prioritize safety and affordability, higher-income groups are often drawn to the economic benefits of thriving regions even if they are located in high-risk areas.
Maine and Mississippi are two states that reveal consistent yet contrasting migration trends shaped by flood risks and economic opportunities. In Mississippi, population growth is higher in non-risky areas across all economic strata, with the most pronounced disparity among upper economic groups, as wealthier populations are better positioned to avoid risky areas and relocate to safer regions.
In contrast, Maine shows the opposite pattern, where population growth in risky areas surpasses that in non-risky areas across all economic groups. This indicates that risky regions in Maine may offer compelling economic or cultural advantages that outweigh concerns about flood risks.
These contrasting trends underscore regional differences in how environmental hazards and economic factors influence migration. While Mississippi demonstrates a clear preference for safer locations, Maine highlights the pull of opportunities that may override environmental concerns. These patterns raise pressing questions: Are these migrations driven by an informed awareness of flood risks and their consequences, or are economic priorities taking precedence?
The map below highlights regions characterized by high economic status and low climate risk, making them potential migration destinations. Through our comprehensive research and analysis, we identified the most suitable locations for migration by factoring in climate hazard risks and key economic considerations like affordability and employment opportunities. By evaluating available resources and assessing risk levels, we pinpoint ideal locations that strike a balance between safety and opportunity, helping individuals and communities make informed relocation decisions.
To summarize, climate migration is driven by survival, economic opportunity, and resilience, with notable variations across regions and economic groups. Lower-income groups prioritize safety and affordability, while higher-income groups often move to wealthier, high-risk areas seeking economic gain despite long-term environmental concerns. Locally, people relocate within counties to safer zones but stay close to economic hubs. Wealthy, flood-prone metro areas continue to grow due to infrastructure investments and resilience.
Identifying locations that balance affordability, opportunity, and resilience is the key to a national strategy that balances climate and economic factors. AlphaGeo contributes to this objective through products such as our Industrial Renaissance Tracker (IRT) that correlates the emerging geographies of greenfield corporate investment to their climate risk and resilience profiles.
🚨 AlphaGeo also recently published fresh research predicting the top 25 residential growth markets for the coming decade. I highly recommend you to check it out. 🚨
🎙️Chat with the CEO of haus.me on the topic.
I have been looking at this company for a while. Yesterday morning I had the chance to have a Zoom chat with Max Gerbut, their CEO. We might be visiting them in March and film this for you.
Haus.me’s revolutionary approach directly addresses the escalating challenges of climate-induced migration within the United States. As floods, wildfires, heatwaves, and hurricanes increasingly displace communities, the need for resilient, rapidly deployable, and self-sustainable housing solutions has become urgent. Haus.me’s homes are designed to withstand extreme weather events, including Category 5 hurricanes while providing off-grid independence through solar power and atmospheric water generation.
Their portability and quick installation—requiring no foundation—make them ideal for responding to disaster scenarios and supporting communities forced to relocate. By creating homes that adapt to diverse climates and environmental conditions, Haus.me offers a practical solution for the millions of Americans expected to migrate due to climate change in the coming decades.
The Founder’s Vision
Max, the CEO of Haus.me, leverages a background in aerospace, robotics, and industrial design. In 2016, Max and his team embarked on an ambitious mission to create the world’s most energy-efficient homes. Inspired by NASA’s 3D-printed Mars Habitat challenge, they collaborated with the space agency to develop novel construction techniques using melted basalt. These innovations laid the foundation for Haus.me’s patents and its disruptive approach to sustainable housing.
Self-Sustainable Homes
These homes are entirely solar-powered and can operate independently in any climate. They require no foundations and can generate their own water from atmospheric humidity.
Features include:
• Off grid integrated energy production and storage.
• Advanced HVAC systems for adaptive climate control.
• Off Grid water generation and storage by atmospheric filtration system.
• Air quality monitoring and purification, including HEPA filtration and UV sterilization.
• Category 5 hurricane & wildfires resistance through proprietary polymer composite construction.
• Fully integrated home that can be installed in under 60 minutes without permits or foundations.
Design Philosophy
Haus.me’s designs are rooted in scientific principles, particularly the Passive House concept. Unlike traditional construction, which relies on materials like wood, concrete, or steel, Haus.me uses proprietary polymer composites derived from the aerospace and marine industries. These materials are lightweight, durable, fireproof, and seismic-resistant, enabling unparalleled insulation and airtightness.
The company’s approach views homes as integrated systems, akin to Formula One cars or aircraft. Every component, from air filtration to energy storage, is optimized for synergy, ensuring superior performance and sustainability. This holistic methodology eliminates the inefficiencies of retrofitting existing structures, which Max considers inadequate for addressing climate adaptation needs.
Scalability
A standout feature of Haus.me is its labor-efficient manufacturing process. By adopting assembly-line principles from the automotive and aerospace sectors, the company reduces labor costs to just 7% of the total production budget—compared to the 60% industry average. Homes are assembled using only basic tools, such as screwdrivers, by workers trained in a matter of weeks. This model enables rapid scalability without dependence on specialized labor.
Market Presence
Although Haus.me is based in California, the company has global ambitions. To date, it has installed homes in the U.S. with plans to expand production to over 400+ units annually by 2026. The company focuses primarily on enterprise clients, including hotel chains, developers, and Airbnb operators, while private buyers account for 10% of orders. Approximately 80% of inquiries come from the U.S., with smaller but growing interest in Europe and Asia.
Haus.me envisions establishing decentralized assembly factories worldwide, akin to Amazon’s logistics model. Components would be shipped globally for local assembly, reducing logistical challenges and costs.
Haus.me offers a practical solution for the millions of Americans expected to migrate due to climate change in the coming decades.
Vision for 2028 and Beyond
By 2028, Haus.me aims to scale its operations to produce millions of homes annually. Key goals include:
• Reducing production costs further through bulk material sourcing and automation.
• Expanding partnerships with enterprises and governments to address housing crises.
• Licensing its technology to regional manufacturers for accelerated global deployment.
Haus.me represents a bold reimagining of what housing can and should be in an era of climate change and urbanization. By combining cutting-edge technology, sustainable materials, and scalable manufacturing, the company is poised to disrupt the global construction industry.
With a vision that aligns closely with the adaptive needs of the 21st century, Haus.me is not just building homes—it’s building a resilient future.
🇳🇿 Conclusion: Climate Migrating… and building a bunker in New Zealand?
Climate migration is changing how we think about where and how we live. As floods, fires, hurricanes, and heatwaves displace more people, finding safe and sustainable housing becomes a serious challenge. Solutions like Haus.me offer a glimpse of the future—homes that are self-sufficient, durable, and resilient to extreme conditions. These innovations could help millions of people stay safe without giving up comfort.
But for some, safety might mean looking beyond the U.S. entirely. Places like New Zealand, often seen as a dream climate refuge, are becoming attractive options for those who want to prepare for the worst. Peter Thiel and others have already started building self-sufficient farms and bunkers there. For people who want more than just a house—they want a real plan for long-term safety— and I found this idea worth exploring.
So in our next episode, we are going to visit New Zealand and maybe learn a few more things about climate-proof housing & adaptation.
Stay tuned for what we found.
If you made it up here, thanks for reading.
Djoann